So Marc Laidlaw, a former writer at Valve released a version of the script for Half-Life: Episode 3
. (Link is for a Github mirror with the correct character names: the original is on his website with changed character names, the story of "Alex Vaunt" and "Gertrude Fremont")
Obviously this isn't an official confirmation of anything, but people seem to be taking it as a confirmation that the project is dead. The first and last paragraphs are pretty clearly meant to be commentary on the state of the project as a whole, at least. (The whole premise of "fictional letter from Not!Gordon Freeman" seems like a questionably legal attempt to dodge a non-disclosure agreement)
To me, though, as someone who enjoyed the Half-Life games, but was never super invested in them, it just feels like confirmation of my long-held suspicion that the Half-Life story is just the video game equivalent of Lost: a bunch of mysterious stuff that feels like it should have an explanation, but there's never any satisfying answers. If this is the sort of story we would have gotten, it largely just raises more questions than answers.
I'm not trying to bash the games: Half-Life had great gameplay, and great storytelling, but I don't actually feel like the good storytelling was really used to tell a good story. Most of the buzz I've seen about this release is grief that this game was never made, but I wonder if the game had actually been made if there wouldn't have been significant complaining about an unsatisfying ending to the story.